IPCC
SYNTHESIS REPORT - ENVIRONMENT
News:
Not doing enough to limit
warming at 1.5°C: IPCC
What's
in the news?
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Reiterating its earlier findings, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reminded the world yet again that it was still not doing enough to rein in global
temperatures from breaching the 1.5degree Celsius threshold despite there
being “multiple, feasible and effective options” to do so.
Key
takeaways:
●
In its latest report, the IPCC, an
UN-backed global scientific body, said average temperatures had already touched
1.1 degree Celsius above the pre-industrial times, and the 1.5degree Celsius
threshold was “more likely than not” to be reached in the “near term” itself.
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The recent Synthesis Report, a summary of
the five earlier reports released between 2018 and 2022, marks the culmination
of IPCC’s sixth assessment cycle that began in 2015.
IPCC
Synthesis Report:
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The IPCC, an UN-backed scientific body whose periodic assessments of climate
science form the basis of global climate action, finalised its Synthesis
Report, incorporating the findings of the five reports that it has released in
the sixth assessment cycle since 2018.
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The Synthesis Report is supposed to be a
relatively non-technical summary of the previous reports, aimed largely at
policymakers around the world.
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It is meant to address a wide range of
policy-relevant scientific questions related to climate change, but, like all
IPCC reports, in a non-prescriptive manner.
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This has brought an end to the Sixth
Assessment Report, the collective work of thousands of scientists over a period
of eight years, starting in February 2015.
Key
findings of the report:
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It says that by 2030 there is a 50 percent
chance that global surface temperature in any single year could exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius.
○
The modelling shows that it is
theoretically possible to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, but the current
scale, scope and pace of global action, pledged until 2030, is not enough.
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Since
pre-industrial times, there has been a 1.1 degrees Celsius temperature rise.
Of which, about 1.07 degree Celsius was contributed by human activities.
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It said the world had emitted about 2,400 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide
between 1850 and 2019, of which a little over 1,000 billion tonnes, or
about 42 percent, had been emitted after 1990.
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It says that in order to have a 50 percent
chance of keeping warming below 1.5 degree Celsius, the world must not emit more than 500 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide
equivalent after 2020.
○
Incidentally, current annual emissions in
2019 amounted to 59 billion tonnes. That means that the 500 billion tonnes
carbon budget would be exhausted in less than ten years.
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It also noted that climate impacts were “unequally distributed” with the poor and
disadvantaged being the most vulnerable.
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The report warns that if the temperature
rise overshoots the 1.5 degrees threshold, there could be irreversible damages.
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It calls for the strategies to counter climate change to be rooted in “diverse
values, worldviews and knowledge, including scientific knowledge, indigenous
knowledge and local knowledge”.
○
This approach will facilitate climate
resilient development and allow locally appropriate, and socially acceptable
solutions.
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Accelerated
financial support for developing countries from developed
countries and other sources is a critical enabler to enhance adaptation and
mitigation actions in the developing countries.
○
Apart from public finance, there are other
avenues including private finance, local finance, national and international,
bilateral, and multilateral finance in the form of grants, technical
assistance, loans, bonds, equity, risk insurance, and financial guarantees.
Barriers
for Climate Action:
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The IPCC report noted that following
issues were the key barriers to effective climate action such as
○
Limited resources
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Insufficient finance
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Low sense of urgency
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Lack of political commitment.
Indian
Perspective:
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It warned that India was among the
countries that were expected to face
large scale impacts.
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It noted that even though India’s per
capita emissions are less, and we have much less historical responsibility (of
emissions), the reality is India is at the forefront of impacts.
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The report said that while adaptation
planning and implementation had progressed across all sectors and regions, large gaps existed in India.
Suggestions
for India:
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In terms of energy, India is one of the
developing countries which have been practising energy efficiency in all sectors, be it the household sector,
industry sector or transport sector.
○
So, from that point of view, India could
achieve low per capita emission growth because of one of these policies.
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India can decarbonize the energy supply sector by not only solar and wind
renewable energy deployment but using other cleaner options.
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India can also reduce the demand for energy and do the distributional justice by
reducing wasteful energy use.
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It calls for India’s future development to
be in sync with the climate objectives.
Go
back to basics:
IPCC:
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The IPCC is the United Nations body for
assessing the science related to climate change.
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The IPCC was set up in 1988 by the World
Meteorological Organisation (WMO)
and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).
Objective:
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Its main activity is to prepare Assessment
Reports, special reports, and methodology reports assessing the state of
knowledge of climate change.
Working:
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The IPCC
does not itself engage in scientific research. Instead, it asks scientists
from around the world to go through all the relevant scientific literature
related to climate change and draw up the logical conclusions.
Assessment
Reports
●
The IPCC’s Assessment Reports (ARs), which
are produced every few years, are the most comprehensive and widely accepted
scientific evaluations of the state of the Earth’s climate.
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They form
the basis for government policies to tackle climate change, and provide the
scientific foundation for the international climate change negotiations.
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Six Assessment Reports have been published
so far.
Key
takeaways from the IPCC Reports:
1.
The First Assessment Report (1990):
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It noted that the emissions resulting from human activities are substantially increasing
the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.
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Global temperatures have risen by 0.3 to
0.6 degree Celsius in the last 100 years.
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In the business-as-usual scenario,
temperatures were likely to increase by 2 degrees Celsius compared to
pre-industrial levels by 2025, and 4 degrees Celsius by 2100. Sea levels were
likely to rise by 65 cm by 2100.
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This report formed the basis for the
negotiation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992,
known as the Rio Summit.
2.
The Second Assessment Report (1995):
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It revised the projected rise in global temperatures to 3 degrees Celsius above
pre-industrial levels by 2100, and sea-level rise to 50 cm, in light of
more evidence.
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Global rise in temperature by 0.3 to 0.6
degree Celsius since the late 19th century was “unlikely to be entirely natural
in origin”.
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AR2 was the scientific underpinning for
the Kyoto Protocol of 1997.
3.
The Third Assessment Report (2001):
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It revised the projected rise in global temperatures to 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius by
2100 compared to 1990.
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It said that the projected rate of warming
was unprecedented in the last 10,000 years.
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The report predicted increased rainfall on
average, and that by 2100, sea levels
were likely to rise by as much as 80 cm from 1990 levels.
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It also warned that the glaciers would retreat during the 21st
century, and the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme weather
events would increase.
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The report presented new and stronger
evidence to show global warming was mostly attributable to human activities.
4.
The Fourth Assessment Report (2007):
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It said that the greenhouse gas emissions increased by 70 percent between 1970 and 2004,
and atmospheric concentrations of CO2 in 2005 (379 ppm) were the most in
650,000 years.
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In the worst-case scenario, global
temperatures could rise 4.5 degrees Celsius by 2100 from pre-industrial levels,
and sea levels could be 60 cm higher than 1990 levels.
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The report won the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for IPCC.
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It was the scientific input for the 2009
Copenhagen climate meeting.
5.
The Fifth Assessment Report (2014):
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It said that more than half the temperature rise since 1950 was attributable to
human activities, and that the atmospheric concentrations of carbon
dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide were “unprecedented” in the last 800,000
years.
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The rise in global temperatures by 2100
could be as high as 4.8 degrees Celsius
from pre-industrial times, and more frequent and longer heat waves were “virtually certain”.
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It also noted that a “large fraction of species” faced extinction, and food security
would be undermined.
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AR5 formed the scientific basis for
negotiations of the Paris Agreement
in 2015.
6.
The Sixth Assessment Report:
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The
first part of AR6 flagged more intense and frequent heat-waves, increased incidents of extreme rainfall, a dangerous rise in sea-levels,
prolonged droughts, and melting glaciers - and said that 1.5 degrees Celsius
warming was much closer than was thought earlier, and also inevitable.
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The second
part warned that multiple climate
change-induced disasters were likely in the next two decades even if strong
action was taken to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases.
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The third
part of the report said that the average temperatures had already touched
1.1 degree Celsius above the pre-industrial times, and the 1.5 degrees Celsius
threshold was “more likely than not” to be reached in the “near term” itself.