MONSOON
AND FOOD INFLATION – ECONOMY
News: The Monsoon and food inflation: a
status check | Explained News
What's
in the news?
● As
of July 30, the current month has witnessed a significant 15.7% above-normal
rainfall, transforming the cumulative deficit into an overall 6% surplus for
the period from June 1 to July 30.
Key
takeaways:
● The
southwest monsoon made a tardy start, arriving seven days late this year,
resulting in 52.6% below-normal rainfall during the first two weeks.
● By
the end of June, there was a cumulative deficiency of 10.1%.
● However,
the scenario changed dramatically from the last week of June, as the monsoon
recovered remarkably, covering the entire country by July 2-six days ahead of
schedule.
Monsoon
and its Impacts of Agriculture:
1.
Delayed Crop Planting:
● The
late arrival of the southwest monsoon raised concerns among farmers about their
ability to sow crops on time, potentially affecting overall agricultural
productivity.
2.
Uneven Rainfall Distribution:
● During
the first two weeks of the monsoon, the country experienced a substantial
rainfall deficit, with the overall rainfall being 52.6% below the normal
long-period average.
● Eastern
and southern India, except Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra, were among the regions
that received insufficient rainfall, which can lead to water stress and impact
crop growth and yields.
3.
Cumulative Deficiency:
● By
the end of June, the cumulative rainfall deficiency stood at 10.1%.
● This
cumulative deficit further intensified worries about agricultural output and
food security, as it could affect the availability of water for crops during
crucial growth stages.
4.
Crop Recovery:
● Despite
the abysmal start, the monsoon showed signs of recovery.
● This
turnaround led to increased kharif crop plantings, including rice, which had
been lagging behind last year's levels until mid-July.
5.
Positive Impact on Sowing:
● The
monsoon's recovery improved sowing conditions for most major agricultural
regions, except for certain areas in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, and West
Bengal, where rainfall remained deficient.
6.
Subsequent Impact on Yields:
● While
the monsoon's recovery positively impacted crop sowing, the ultimate impact on
yields would largely depend on the rainfall during August and September.
7.
El Niño Concerns:
● Many
global weather agencies predicted that El Niño would persist and strengthen
through the 2023-24 winter.
● El
Niño's potential strengthening raised concerns about its impact on India's
monsoon in the coming months, particularly during August.
● A
weakened monsoon can adversely affect crop growth, yields, and overall
agricultural productivity.
WAY
FORWARD:
1.
Monitor Monsoon Developments:
● Continuously
monitor the progress of the monsoon and its distribution across regions.
● Timely
and accurate weather forecasting can help farmers make informed decisions about
crop planting and irrigation.
2.
Crop Diversification:
● Encourage
farmers to diversify their crop choices to reduce dependence on water-intensive
crops.
● Promote
the cultivation of climate-resilient crops that require less water and are
suitable for specific agro-climatic zones.
3.
Strategic Buffer Stock:
● Maintain
a strategic buffer stock of essential food commodities like rice and wheat to
address any temporary supply shortages and stabilize food prices during periods
of volatility.
4.
Supply Chain Management:
● Improve
supply chain logistics to ensure smooth transportation and distribution of
agricultural produce.
● This
will help prevent post-harvest losses and ensure the timely availability of
food in the market.
5.
Price Stabilization Measures:
● Implement
effective price stabilization measures to control food inflation and prevent
price volatility.
● These
measures may include regulating exports, imports, and MSP (Minimum Support
Price) mechanisms.
6.
Encourage Pulses and Oil seed Production:
● Provide
incentives and support to farmers for increasing pulses and oilseed production.
● This
can reduce the country's dependence on imports and stabilize prices.
7.
Support the Dairy Sector:
● Extend
support to the dairy sector to enhance milk production and improve the
availability of dairy products.
● This
can help stabilize milk prices and ensure food security.
The monsoon's erratic behaviour has impacted crop
sowing and food inflation in India. While the recovery has been promising,
concerns over El Niño persist, making it vital for the government to monitor
the agricultural sector closely and implement appropriate measures to ensure
food security.