POPULATION BOMB - ECONOMIC

News: The population bomb that never was

 

What's in the news?

       Researchers from the Earth4All Initiative have released a report titled ‘People and Planet, 21st Century Sustainable Population Scenarios and Possible Living Standards Within Planetary Boundaries’.

 

Key findings of the report:

1. “Too Little, Too Late”:

       In the first scenario, called “Too Little, Too Late”, researchers predicted that if economic development continues as it has in the last five decades, the world’s population would peak at 8.6 billion in 2050, roughly 25 years from now and decline to 7 billion by 2100.

2. “The Giant Leap”:

       In the second scenario, called “The Giant Leap”, the researchers concluded that the population will peak at 8.5 billion by 2040 – a decade sooner than 2050 – but then rapidly decline to around 6 billion by 2100.

       This will be due to our investments in poverty alleviation, gender equity, education and health, ameliorating inequality, and food and energy security.

3. Optimistic than bomb:

       The report also clarified that these population predictions are more optimistic than the kind of historic fear-mongering and regressive development policies engendered by the ‘population bomb’ metaphor.

       It also stated that population alone was never the problem for sustainability, nor will it be for the climate crisis.

 

Causes of rising population:

       High birth rate and low death rate.

       Early marriage practice - causing longer span of fertility and reproductive activity.

       Illiteracy among females causing troubles on reproductive health care.

       Rising poverty rates lead to the belief that having more children will boost their family income.

       Son-meta preference - leading to the prevailing social pressure of having more male children along with age-old social norms such as sons are breadwinners and caretakers for the parents in their old age.

       Lack of awareness on family planning.

       Poor contraceptive use.

       Agricultural advancements leading to food security of the family and nation.

       Safer pregnancies resulting from technological advancements.

       Improved management of epidemics and better disaster management.

       Religious attitude towards family planning.

 

Positive impacts of rising population:

       Economic growth by means of increasing consumption.

       Increasing availability of labor which paves way for the phase of demographic dividend in India.

       Innovations - Historical examples suggest that scarcity leads to several innovations through research and development. Example:  Green Revolution enhances agricultural production resulting from the rising food scarcity across the world in 1950-60s.

 

Negative impacts of rising population:

       Rising unemployment and under-employment.

       Inadequate resources trapping poor into poverty.

       Poor standards of living such as lack of housing, food insecurity.

       Rising inequality in income, land and several other resources.

       Increasing expenditure on social welfare programmes.

       Rising dependency rate by increasing the ageing population - Due to fertility drops and lifespans rise globally.

       Environmental degradation resulting from depletion of natural resources by rising population.

       Dangers of conflicts and wars through the cause of instability in the society through the cases of starvation and famine.

 

Government Initiatives:

1. India was the first country in the world to begin a population control program in 1952. It emphasized the use of natural devices for family planning.

2. In 1965 (Third Five Year Plan), the Family Planning Department was established. The sterilization techniques for both men and women introduced in India.

3. The First National Population Policy (Fifth Five Year Plan) was started in 1976. During this period, the age of marriage for boys and girls was increased to 21 and 18 years respectively. The forced sterilization was also introduced during this period, which was later given up subsequently after criticisms.

4. The Second National Population policy was introduced in 2000 with a policy framework for achieving goals and prioritising strategies during the next decade to meet the reproductive and child health needs of the people of India along with the target to achieve the net replacement level (Total fertility rate).

       It aims to control high population growth rate.

       It also aims to stabilize the population by 2045.

       It plans to bring the total fertility rate (TFR) to a replacement level of 2.1 by 2010.

       It sets up the National Commission on Population with the Prime Minister as Chairman and Chief Minister of states as members.

5. The National Population Stabilization Fund was created in 2005 to support policies on population and reproductive and health care.

6. The Mission Parivar Vikas, 2017 was launched to reduce fertility levels in 145 high focus districts having high fertility rates in the country.

 

Measures to control population:

       Late marriages.

       Moral self restraint.

       Increasing awareness among the population towards population control.

       Access to reproductive and maternal health care.

       Women Empowerment - Increasing literacy, education and awareness among women.

       Increasing access to modern methods of population control such as contraceptives.

       Economic development - Increasing skills and jobs offering economic growth which reduces poverty, thus ultimately resulting in reduced population growth.

       Urbanisation and the concept of nuclear energy needs to be enhanced.

       Societal changes - Change in attitude towards male preferences.

 

WAY FORWARD:

1. Family welfare approach:

       We need to move from a family planning approach to a family welfare approach.

       Enhancing focusing on empowering men and women in being able to make informed choices about their fertility, health and well-being.

2. Making population productive:

       It is not about whether the population is large or small; it is about whether it is healthy, skilled and productive.

       Skills are important, but so is economic planning that ensures good jobs, agricultural productivity, etc.

3. Address the issue of ageing:

       Estimates show that 12% of India’s total population by 2025 is going to be the elderly. Every fifth Indian by 2050 will be over the age of 65.

       Need to figure out how to address ageing in the context of changing families and the nature of state support in India and create conditions in which the elderly population can have a healthy and happy life.

4. Invest in youths:

       India certainly has the capacity to tap into the potential of our youth population.

       There is a brief window of opportunity, which is only there for the next few decades.

       India needs to invest in adolescent well-being right away, if we want to reap the benefits.

       It is equally important to ensure good and quality education to the girls along with improving employment opportunities for young women and increasing the female employment rate.

       Otherwise, our demographic dividend could turn easily into a demographic disaster.

5. Changing from population control to population policy:

       India needs to change our discourse around population policy. Although we use the term population policy, population control still remains a part of our dialogue.

       India needs to align population policy towards reproductive health for individuals.

       India needs to orient the population policy towards enhancing population as resources for India’s development, and change the mindset to focus on ensuring that the population is happy, healthy and productive.

 

India needs to adopt population control measures. But the focus should be on strengthening public health infrastructure and raising awareness about the need for population control.