Why India May Be Better Prepared to Withstand a Poor Monsoon

Why India May Be Better Prepared to Withstand a Poor Monsoon

India faces the possibility of a below-normal Southwest Monsoon, with the 2026 seasonal rainfall forecast at around 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA). However, improved water storage, groundwater conditions, decentralised conservation and agricultural contingency planning provide greater resilience than during earlier drought episodes.

Southwest Monsoon and Current Situation

·         The Southwest Monsoon (June–September) supplies nearly three-fourths of India's annual rainfall.

·         IMD's all-India monsoon LPA is about 87 cm, based on the 1971–2020 period.

·         Monsoon rainfall is classified using its departure from LPA; therefore, distribution across space and time is as important as the national seasonal total.

·         The 2026 outlook indicates greater rainfall stress over Northwest, Central and parts of Peninsular India, while Northeast India is relatively better placed.

·         Early-season rainfall weakness was associated with weak monsoon circulation, inadequate low-pressure systems and unfavourable intra-seasonal conditions rather than El Niño alone.

What Controls the Indian Monsoon?

Differential land–sea heating → Northward shift of ITCZ → Cross-equatorial flow → Moisture-bearing Southwest Monsoon → Orographic uplift & rainfall

Two major branches operate over India:

The Western Ghats, Himalayas, Tibetan Plateau, Thar Desert and surrounding Indian Ocean strongly influence monsoon circulation and rainfall distribution.

El Niño and MJO

1.        El Niño is the abnormal warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It alters the Walker Circulation and is generally associated with a weaker Indian monsoon, though El Niño does not automatically produce drought in India.

2.      The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an eastward-moving zone of enhanced and suppressed tropical convection. Its location and phase can strengthen or weaken Indian monsoon rainfall on intra-seasonal timescales.

3.      Hence:

                     i.            ENSO → Seasonal influence

                   ii.            MJO → Intra-seasonal variability

4.      This distinction is important for understanding why rainfall can fluctuate sharply even within the same monsoon season.

Why a Weak Monsoon Matters

1.        A rainfall deficit operates through interconnected geographical and economic channels:

                     i.            Low Rainfall → Low Soil Moisture → Delayed/Reduced Kharif Sowing → Lower

                   ii.            Farm Output → Rural Income Stress → Food-price Pressure

2.      At the same time:

                     i.            Low Rainfall → Lower Reservoir & Groundwater Recharge → Irrigation + Drinking Water + Hydropower Stress

3.      Rain-fed regions are particularly vulnerable because irrigation cannot fully compensate for prolonged rainfall deficiency.

4.      Major Kharif crops exposed to monsoon variability include rice, maize, cotton, pulses and oilseeds.

Why India's Resilience Has Improved

1.        Reservoir Storage: Carry-over storage from previous favourable rainfall seasons provides irrigation and drinking-water buffers during temporary monsoon deficits.

2.      Groundwater: Improved recharge in several regions provides supplementary irrigation, though excessive extraction remains a structural concern.

3.      Local Water Conservation: Expansion of farm ponds, check dams, watershed works, bunds and rainwater-harvesting structures improves local storage and soil-moisture retention.

4.      Irrigation: Greater irrigation coverage and micro-irrigation reduce direct dependence on rainfall, though vulnerability remains high in rain-fed areas.

5.      Energy Diversification: Growth of solar and wind power reduces dependence on hydropower, allowing reservoir water to be managed more flexibly during rainfall shortages.

6.      Agricultural Preparedness: Around 315 potentially vulnerable districts were identified for contingency measures, including alternative crops, short-duration varieties, seed availability and district-specific agricultural planning.

Agricultural Adaptation

1.        A poor monsoon requires adaptation according to local agro-climatic conditions rather than a uniform national response.

                     i.            Promote short-duration and drought-tolerant varieties where sowing is delayed.

                   ii.            Shift towards relatively low-water-demand crops, particularly pulses, millets and oilseeds.

                 iii.            Encourage intercropping and crop diversification to distribute rainfall risk.

                iv.            Expand micro-irrigation and moisture conservation.

                  v.            Maintain contingency seed stocks for delayed sowing or resowing.

                vi.            Use weather and agro-meteorological advisories for sowing decisions.

Water Management Dimension

1.        India's challenge is increasingly moving from simply increasing water supply towards managing rainfall variability.

2.      This requires integration of:

3.      Reservoir Management + Groundwater Recharge + Watershed Development + Micro-irrigation + Rainwater Harvesting + Crop Planning

4.      A good national rainfall figure can still coexist with local drought if rainfall is unevenly distributed geographically or concentrated into a few extreme rainfall events.

Important Concepts and Facts

India's improved preparedness does not eliminate monsoon dependence. The deeper geographical challenge is that climate change can increase spatial and temporal rainfall variability. Long-term resilience therefore requires moving from monsoon-dependent agriculture to climate-resilient agriculture, while simultaneously strengthening watershed management, groundwater sustainability, irrigation efficiency and sub-seasonal weather forecasting.